SP, Gold

The SP's gave us a chance to buy some put spreads which I'm comfortable with. There is still a short term signal to be short from 890 with a 898 stop. It's probably not worth the weekend risk and the numbers will change for Monday, so I'd get out moc.

Gold continues to be on a open ended bullish signal.

We'll pick it up next week. Have a great weelend.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

Sell Dec SP at 890 with an 8 point stop. Target is 864.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, Gold

With today's shortened trading session, I would buy SP puts or put spreads if we trade back near 890.

Also, the fairly aggressive buy levels in Feb gold are going to shift lower if it can't make some progress to the upside today. But for now, as the past couple trading sessions, I think you can buy gold around 811. The stop level is a relatively tight $3.00. Upside target for at least today is still open, however, 826 should be resistance.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Happy Thanksgiving!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's rallying without us

We missed getting in at 862 by 1/2 point. Now it is almost at the target so we need to cancel the order and look for another.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP Update

We need to raise the prices in the SP. Buy 862 with an 852 stop. Same 880 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's, Gold

Buy SP's at 859 with an 849 stop. Looking for 880.

Feb gold traded under 810 briefly. The stop level should be as close as 6.00 which seems very tight with this kind of volatility and holiday trading hours. I would recommend buying feb calls if we go back to 810.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold, Dow,

With most markets closing early today, it is likely to be quiet. The Dow chart offers a ray of hope for stock bulls with a sign of consolidation. There may be a trade to buy it later.

Gold still looks positive. Buy calls or contracts under 810 (Feb). I'll update stop levels if we get there.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Some of these markets have made moves the last few trading days that may turn out to be more than short term corrections. It's still a bit early in the stock indexes, but the dollar index and yen seem to have more work to do going down while the ec and gold have more upside. Sp's may back to 880's and possibly over 900.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, Sugar

The SP looks very short term neutral within the larger sell picture. Some daytraders may want to take profits here in mid 50's.

Sugar looks just like gold did a few days ago at 745. A straddle at 11.75 may work well for a larger move in either direction.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP stop

Move the sp stop down to break even as market goes negative on the day.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The counter trend moves from yesterday continue. The dollar index, currency, and sp futures trades have all gone through there respective stop levels. Stock indexes still look like a sale and buying puts are probably the way to go. With sp futures I would sell 868 with a 20 point stop with a initial target of 830.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Buy/Sell Zones

Buy/Sell Zones have been updated for Tuesday, November 25th:

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

I think upper 830's are a good place to buy puts on the SP's. Mini sp puts are still very liquid. That and the treasury futures offer the most liquidity in options. Because of that and the extreme volatility, I'd favor buying puts to selling futures. For those more inclined to trade futures, the numbers for this trade are sell dec sp at 837, risk 35 points, target 750.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Out of Sugar and into Currencies

Sugar went through 11.70 to 11.77. I'd be flat here.

The dollar index, ec and bp all went through earlier levels to enter positons.

Stock indexes are likely to develop sell signals a little higher; 8385 in the dow, 835 in sp and 1140 in nq.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Currencies, Sugar

The dollar index may have at least one more rally in it from today's early weakness. Buy the Dec DX at 8660 with a 90 pt stop and a 8850 target.

The EC and BP look just the opposite. Sell Dec EC at 1.2785 with a 120 pt stop and a 1.2500 target and Sell the Dec BP at 1.5050 also with a 120 point stop and a 1.4800 target.

Shorter term trades with tighter stops may develop throughout the day.



Sugar is higher from Friday's entry. I would move the stop to 11.45 and continue to target 11.70. Also, if stopped I would look to re-enter from lower levels (11.25).



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sugar

Buy March sugar at 11.35 with a 11.20 stop and a 11.75 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Yesterday morning I Posted that Gold had consolidated so much near 745 it was worth considering long straddles there. Well today it is breaking out to the upside, and if most of this move can hold, it shifts the outlook considerably to the upside...820. I will watch for a good long futures trade and Post it asap.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten year notes, SP's

Ten year notes are the only market starting out in a trade zone this morning. A buy wouldn't come until lower prices or later in the day however, around 119'12.

After yesterday's terrible finish in the sp's, the charts only look worse. Sell levels are higher though and will monitor for day trades.

On a side note...What looks like the Mother of All Tops is the cash SP monthly chart; a double top from the March 2000 and last October's ('o7) highs, breaking the October 2002 low which we accomplished yesterday. The projection would be to zero. More optimistically, a trend line from the August '82 lows through the August '84 lows and the '87 lows comes in about 725. I hope that holds.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP stop

The sp recently went back through 792. That is a lot of volatility for a scratch. I'm looking for shorter term trades but they haven't developed in either direction. There is still a lot of time for that to happen.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP stop

Now move the stop in SP to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP Comment

Here is an observation from today's sp trade that I see more frequently than you might think. The trades are based on standard deviations from recent trading as you may understand from the website material. Today's levels of buying 792 with an 18 point stop are derived from recent volatility. The market declined 17.75 pts below the entry and then topped out 16 points above the entry. Pretty symmetrical and often an indication I was early. At the point it would have rallied 18 points from entry, often times I recommend to move stops to break even. We just went back to the entry point. I wrote a brief article related to this that you can find on the link below and the website.

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/market-c/stops-vs--options

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Close Call

It's far from over but the 774 stop was missed by a tick in the mini and a half point in the pit. I want to just mention that while the SP was closing in on the stop price suggested, the dow and NQ were just hitting theire respective buy zones. If we hold we may have more long day trade signals with tighter identifiable stops.


Also, Dec crude did go back through 50.20 to 49.76, but if you want to trade the mini crude you have to move to Jan. The corresponding level in Jan Crude is 50.50. Same 2.00 stop with a 54.80 initial target in Jan.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Oil

We may have just missed this but if Dec Crude trades back down to 50.20 it s a buy with a 2.00 stop and a 54.50 target. Would be consistent with a bounce in SP but a fairly large risk. It is also a level to roll down any existing long put positions.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP NQ

The SP and NQ are near their respective buy zones for the day. Technically it's a buy in the sp at 792 with an 18pt stop and an initial target of 830.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sugar, Currencies, Gold

Sugar is the only market starting the day in a buy or sell zone this morning. Weakness to around 11.35 (March) would be a level to consider buying calls.

The recent corrective moves in the dollar index, yen, EC, and BP are in jeopardy at current levels and may resume their longer term trends without a reversal today. As mentioned yesterday, these moves were not likely to continue without stock indexes getting on board. There is still no real sign of better stock index prices at this point and continued weakness hinders the corrections in the above mentioned markets.

Gold is stuck in its narrow Buy/Sell band and is so tight it may be worth considering long straddles when trading near 745.

If your subscription is not providing timely updates on the Posts, you can contact me to get on a direct email list. Buy/Sell Zones are updated on the website, http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stocks, EC

We are approaching buy zones in the stock indexes again similar to yesterday afternoon. This is more of a setup to take money off the table for existing shorts (roll puts if you own them) than to get long; the market is often vulnerable to bounces with this technical set up.

The EC has pulled back consideraly from earlier levels and is in a good position to buy calls around the recent lows of 1.2530-40.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold, Currency, Stock Index Comment

Gold has spiked up into the 760's. If it can maintain these gains the Sell Zone will shift dramatically higher for tomorrow (around 790ish). Gold has made this run in part due to the weak dollar/rising currencies (EC and BP are up big today), which was somewhat telegraphed by the recent buy/sell zones.

However, the Stock indexes of late have tended to move with the currencies and gold (and oil to a lesser extent). I wouldn't expect the stock indexes , currencies and gold to continue as they are today going in different directions. Stocks again may join the party on the upside or if not, I would expect these moves in EC, BP and Gold to stall.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold, Sugar

For any long Gold positions from yesterday, I would put in break even stops at this point and continue to look for 747.

Also, I've been watching more markets and have added both Sugar and Cotton to the Buy/Sell Zone list on the website. Sugar is in a Buy Zone where you can buy 7.48 risking 13 ticks and look for 7.80. This is actually now late ,(March sugar is at 11.60) but I'll continue to Post trades for these markets.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

First off today, if you are not receiving timely updates on the new Posts during the day, you can contact me and I can add you to a direct email list.

Also, don't forget that you can go to the Buy/Sell Zone page on the Stops and Options website,

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

for a more complete list of markets than the ones I focus on in the Posts.

Today looks similar to yesterday in that the Dollar index and Yen remain in their Sell zones while the EC and BP are in their buy zones. I'll be updating as I see daytrades in those markets.

Gold is stuck in a narrow range we've traded several times. This tight range is unlikely to continue for too long. Again, I will update daytrade levels shortly.

The stock indexes nearing their Buy Zones late yesterday turned into a great level to take money off the table for existing shorts. The aggressive buy idea may have had a bit too high of a target. Stocks indexes are still not set up for sustained long positions.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

For those of you reading last Friday, you know there was a sell futures/ buy puts recommendation when the SP's rallied to 914. We're now approaching the buy zone, low 820's (it was listed as 823 on the Buy/Sell Zone page of the Stops and Options website) but now looks like 21). which is where you would want to roll the put down to take some profits off the table. NQ is in similar position. A very aggressive trade would be to buy sp's here at 827 and risk to 810. Upside target is 880.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen Stop

The yen stop level has been hit, 103.65.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen

Sell dec yen at 1.0340 with a 10365 stop and 1.0280 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Stop

Gold went through our 735 stop level. Although the same basic trade from this morning is still in place, buy 731 sell 747, I wanted to protect some profits. It may prove costly to have exited but if gold continues to rally, more trades will develop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

BP, Gold update

I like the idea of getting long British Pound calls here, around 1.4980. A long futures trade wouldn't develop until about 1.49 10 but we may not get there. Jan 170 BP calls are offered at 70 ($6.25 /tick makes them about $400+).

Gold came down to 735.2 so it barely missed our stop. It may suprise us to the upside if we can stay in it.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold just rallied into the 740's. Move stop to 735.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold just made new lows to 730.30 and provided an opportunity to get long. Keep stop at 725.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Currencies and Gold

Similar to yesterday morning, we have the dollar index and the yen futures in sell zones while the EC and gold are in buy zones. The BP also now is in a buy zone. I'll be watching initially for moves to 87.45 in the DX and 1.0425 in the yen to establish puts and or short futures positions (details on entry levels and stops to come if we approach those general levels). Also, I'm looking for 1.2550 in the EC, 1.4910 in the BP, and 731 agin in gold to establish long positions. Again, I'll update specific stop levels as we appoach those levels.

Gold is set up similar to yesterday so we have the same trade: buy 731 (today with a $6 stop) and a, sell 747.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Exit

Gold is technically in a sell zone now above 747. I'd exit the day trade and cancel the stop. The mid 730's may very well be another opportunity to get long for a short term trade rather than get stopped out.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Stop

Move stop on gold up to at least break even (731), and probably should be put at 738. I think gold should hold 738 if its going to continue today.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

I think you can buy Dec Gold here at 731 with a 722 stop and a 750 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dollar Index, Yen, EC

This morning both the dollar index and yen futures are in Sell Zones which suggests buying puts to open. Conversely, the EC continues from last week to look like a buy.

I would think these currency setups would suggest some strength in the stock indexes but it's not showing up as of yet technically.

Gold and Oil are also approaching buy levels, to get long with gold calls and to get out of any short oil positions.

Stocks

This is technically a sale, at 914 in the dec sp with a 20 point risk, or buy puts.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stock Indexes and EC

Despite yesterday's rally in stocks they still generally look more negative than positive. There could be day trades in either direction but another move to the highs will likely be an opportunity to buy puts.

EC, however, does still look positive and think there will be a day trade buy soon. (It's been rally as I've been entering this post). Day trade levels change quickly so I don't like to post levels too early. If it does trade down towards 1.2530 though, it would be another opportunity to buy calls.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Dec Gold just briefly rallied into today's sell zone (751) where it would be a good place to sell calls bought previously.

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Markets Turn

After yet another day with heavy volatility, gold and EC are headed higher as suggested earlier. It is certainly hard to pick stop levels some times and that's the best time to consider long options. The bid/offers are wider but at least you can ride through some of the short term volatility without getting stopped out.



In general, the stock indexes, crude, gold, and all the currencies except the yen have tended to move together while the dollar index, yen futures, and to a lesser extent the ten year notes move in the other. Today those relationships are working agian but in reverse directions since election day.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stock Indexes and Crude Oil

The indexes and crude are pushing the lows of their trading bands and are vulnerable for significant rallies.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC and Gold

Both Gold and Euro currency are set up to rally. To establish some exposure I would look at the Feb Gold 1000 calls and Jan EC 1.40 call near yesterday's settlements if possible...4.90 in the gold call and mid 50's in the EC call. There should be short term futures trades to get long as the day progresses.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

New lows were just made in the sp to 862. I'd cover the short here. The market is getting oversold. Also, this is the beginning of the buy zone from this morning's email.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Lower sp stop to 870.50.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

Here at 870 I'd move my stop to break even in sp.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, EC

Sell SP at 875.50 with a 5 pt stop and new lows for the day as target...go for the next half hour. The EC is nicely higher from this mornings email levels and maybe beginning a larger move. A day trade long may develop later.



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold has broken down through this morning's stop level. It is still set up, however, for a move to the upper 700's. Purchasing calls would be a way to stay long through anymore short term weakness.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

Sell Dec EC at 1.2550 with a 1.2570 stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.