Good morning. The S&P is at 830 which is right about where it was when I left on Friday. The technicals haven't changed much since then in that it above 830 is a medium term resistance level that suggests buying puts and/or selling calls. However, like Friday, I am not overly bearish for a few reasons. The weekly charts show a buy zone under 849 and have for the last few weeks. The Monthly chart is still very bearish but with huge amount of upside correction risk which wouldn't alter the bearish picture. The daily and intraday charts are still bearish but can turn at any time on strength, probably in the 840's. With that I think it is possible for a move up to 950 again. So the highs of Thursday and Friday in the mid 830's are very pivotal to me.
There is a Fed meeting this week and they will likely keep interest rates unchanged. Long term treasury futures have been sliding recently and I think they can make a bigger move down outside of another dramatric fall in stocks.
The CRB has turned a little more positive which is consistent with the recent firming in oil and metals. I think both gold and crude can rally more. Gold perhaps significantly.
I don't have a strong view on the dollar at the moment.
As I mentioned Friday, I left early to attend a PFGBEST conference in Phoenix. It was excellent and there are a lot of tools available to help with your trading and investing. I will be adding a lot of that information to the Stops and Options website asap. I'll keep you posted.
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