Gold

Below is a Daily chart on April Gold.  As bullish as gold seems to be on a fundamental basis (summarized by the headline I saw yesterday 'Trillions are the new Billions') there is a sell zone today at 962 and , similar to yesterday, the buy zone is 941.  Weekly support is down at 925 and intraday support at 952.  

  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Morning Update

The S&P this morning broke the November lows and still looks negative.  Technically, it continues to be a market to sell any strength.  In the early going today, any bounce into the mid 740's is probably good for a daytrade sale.  Longer term the risk/reward is worse today than yesterday's early strength but still no real sign of a bottom. The sp is currently at 735.

Gold also is continuing it's move higher from yesterday mornings early low's.  The mid 960's is actually a good early profit taking level.

Ten year notes are up but face early resistance hear at 122'16.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's and Gold

The early S&P high of 779 was never broken and now its closing fairly weak, breaking yesterday's low. The early levels did offer an opportunity to sell calls.

Gold firmed up from under 940 and is now around 947. Nice trade so far to those clients who pulled the trigger in the buy zone.

We'll look for continuation of these moves tomorrow. Have a nice afternoon.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Thus far the sp has stopped at 879, notes at 121'10 (since last post) and gold is now beneath 940.

Below are charts of the support I was referring to in the TY and Gold and the resistance in the SP.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The S&P's are going to open higher, currently the March contract is up 12 at 773.50.  Yesterday's high was 779.50.  There is still resistance there in the upper 870's and I think it is a good place to establish short call spreads if you don't have any.  

Ten Year notes are just the opposite with support under 121'10.  intra-day I think notes can be sold above 121'28 but would consider writing put spreads under 121'10 for a longer term trade.

The dollar index is mildly bullish with support at 87.25 and resistance at 88.60.

Gold has come way off its earlier highs and I will be looking for a spot to buy April under $840.

Crude has finally found short term support.  I see a possible move to 48.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stops and Options

The Stops and Options website, www.stopsandoptions.com , has been updated recently to incorporate a new filter in the trade set ups. Take a look at your earliest convenience. As I mentioned the other day, these new trade setups are being automated to give more exact and complete signals across more markets.

I feel the stock indexes are a good place for option writing again after a very tough year or so. Volatility is still relatively high (even with today's large decline) and liquidity is very good in the mini sp options. Many clients have been short both put and call spreads which limits exposure but still takes advantage of the time decay while the market trades between the strikes. That, of course, can change but I think can be managed.

We have so far had a successful re-test of the November lows in the SP's and we await a Presidential speech tonight, but today's rally brings us back to levels where selling calls (and call spreads) should be considered.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Update

I have been working to modify and automate my trading strategy to make it more disciplined, across more markets, and in more time frames, to offer more assistance in your trading.

The system on a day to day basis is very reasonable to follow manually but requires much more patience and larger stop values than intra-day traders would expect. For those reasons, the day to day system is more suited for option positions than futures.

It's a good environment in my view to consider writing options on the sp's because of the relative high volatility (higher premiums) and a market that is 40+% off it's highs.

As for today's markets, the S&P's may have room to rally to over 800 again but should hit substantial resistance again around 810 if it did so. The dollar and gold can still be bought on dips and interest rates are still range trading. Technically, crude looks strong intra-day but is analogous to the S&P's at 810.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Morning Update

Not a great opening ahead for stocks.  The S&P's settled Friday at 820 and they are currently 795.  On the Daily charts this looks like possible support but we'll have to give it some room in the early hours.  The mood seems to be deteriorating again as the onslaught of bad economic news doesn't let up.  I won't begin to list the concerns, you know what they are. 

Recent trends in Gold, Silver and crude continue.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Range Trades

For the last month the stock indexes, interest rates, dollar index, and the commodity index have traded within ever shrinking ranges.   This will not last forever and when breakouts occur, we could return to some bigger volatility.  But for now, option writing has been working and should continue until the enviornment changes.  On the other hand, futures trades need to be very short term oriented.

The exceptions have been gold,  silver, and crude.  Gold and silver trending higher and crude trending lower.  Gold and silver continue to look technically like durable trends.  Crude on the other hand, I'm more suspicious of continuing lower, but I won't call an end to it until the charts change.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold and Silver

Gold and silver are up substantially again today.  There continues to be significant upside for both in the bigger picture from a technical standpoint as well as fundamental view.  Futures and options on futures are certainly ways to play these markets but single stock futures of the metals companies and physical bullion and coins are also worth considering.  I'll continue to try to pick out specific futures trades, but if you have interest in the others, feel free to contact me for futher information.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's

The s&p's are currently trading around 830.  I think this is an important level for today's close.  Early today, the upper 820's may be a good buy for a short term rally to upper 840's.  You'd have to risk yesterday's low of  819.50 so the risk/reward is not great.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's

Despite the big selloff today, the S&P is still in a range and may hold near current levels, <830. The market looks now on the downside the way it did on the upside in the 860's.

The reaction to all the government efforts to stabilize the economy is very negative today but this is going to drag on for perhaps months. So until the charts turn more negative (which can happen soon) I think one has to be very careful to sell into this weakness.

Gold continues to hang onto it's earlier gains and is bullish.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Waiting on Washington

With the Treasury plan only an hour or so away and the sp charts very neutral, I'm waiting to see some reaction.  

Gold, however, has opened up today with some nice gains overnight and continues to look bullish.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The stock market remained in its recent range while I was out at the end of last week.  No change with that again today.  I still have mixed signals at these levels, 860's. 

Notes continue to look short term bearish with at least another point on the downside likely.

I'm still looking for a definate buy signal in gold but feel eventually that it will rally. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Update

The market never regained any positive momentum from the mid day selloff.   It looks range bound to me until Friday's unemployment data.

I am going to Chicago tomorrow and returning Friday.  I won't be in the office at all either day and will have to pick it up on Monday.  Not great timing with unemployment coming Friday but should be a productive trip.  

While I'm away, please call 866-249-4024 for any assistance.  Thanks and good luck with your trading.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude, Stocks

Crude stalled and broke down through our stop.  Stand aside for now.

S&P's have also come back down after ralling to 849.50.   It failed right above our daily sell zone. Any buy signal won't come until later, if at all.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude

Crude traded back down to 40.78 and is now around 41.50.  If you were able to get in, you can sell it here for a quick profit and probably be able to do the trade again.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Oil

Buy March Crude at 41.00 with a 60 cent stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

Yesterday's activity turned both the S&P and crude to more positive charts.  I think there will be a trade (short term) to buy the sp under 832 and March crude under 41.  Option traders should consider getting out of long put positions and into short puts or put spreads.

Gold remains bullish under 900 and the 10 years reamain bearish.  

I don't have a view on the dollar at the moment.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

the EC just traded through 1.3020.  I'd get out and take profits.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

The EC came back to 1.2937 aobut 10 minutes after the last post so hopefully you were able to get in.  If so, raise stop to break even and look to take profits at 1.3020.  EC is currently at 1.2990.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

Buy the March EC at 1.2940 with a 30 tick stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

I think the SP's are looking better but upper 820's low 830's are going to be hard to get through today.  I still think buying weakness will payoff in the next day or so with a move to the upper 800's.

Ten year notes look more negative again.  I think you can sell rallies for the rest of the day.

I missed the EC and Swiss right after the last post.  Now they're tough on a risk/reward basis but may have another chance to get long later.

It's interesting that gold is trading with the dollar recently and not against it.  It seems easy t o make a case for gold regardless of the dollar.  The daily chart still looks bullish from 900.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

This morning I'm looking for places to buy the Swiss and Euro currencies, gold, and probably the sp.  I'm looking to sell the ten year notes.  I'll come back with levels.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

I think the S&P's may close stronger today.  I'm trying to buy 816  with a 4 point stop for a day trade with the idea that it can push back towards the highs for the close.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

More Mixed Markets

The S&P is down again to start a new month.  The technicals remain mixed in that the monthly charts are extremely negative but with substantial risk for a correction, the weekly charts are more positive suggesting a possible correction to the mid 900's, and the daily is currently negative. 850 seems to be the middle of the range develeped since mid November with no real indications that is going to change. 

The market reminds me of the timeframe when Bush and Gore were in the disputed election.  The market traded day to day based on comments and progress on the legal settlement.  Now we are trading on day to day progress and comments on the stimulus and Tarp plans.  The more the market focuses on the problems and the divide in government response, the more bearish the market trades.  When optimism builds over any solution, or even something resembling a plan, the market firms up.  I think the maket will eventually trade up as a result of the inevitable stimulus/Tarp action in the next few weeks to 900+ in the March S&P.   If that does take place, however,  it will only look like a better opportunity for bearish trades.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results