Option Course Webinar

For those of you interested in options, I will be doing an Option Webinar this afternoon at 3:30  Central time.  To participate you can just click on the link below.  It will be archived for those who would like to see it but can't make today's time.  Thank you.

To join the event as an attendee
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2. Click "Join Now".

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Morning Update

Yesterday's trade hurt the modestly bullish picture for stocks, the dollar and crude.  They are all more neutral now and I would expect more two way trade.  I think there is resistance in the sp in the upper 790's and support in the low 780's.  For the dollar, 86.20 to 85.30, and 51 to 49.30 in crude.

Gold looks similar to yesterday in that I think it's a little bearish with resistance above 930 (yesterday I mistakenly wrote 830 instead).

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Morning Update

Stocks are going to open lower and, at least for the early going, I think there may be more weakness from the upper 790's. However, this pullback from the last weeks rally is an opportunity to consider some longer term bullish positions. So I would be patient to give the weakness some room and perhaps trade it short early, but if the intraday charts start to stabilize it could be a nice longer term (days) buy.

A similar scenario has developed with crude and the reverse scenario is present with the dollar index.

Gold looks bearish today and I think its a sale in the low 830's.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Update

From the daily charts, this morning's moves in many markets look like fades. Stocks are down but I think its too early to call for an end of the recent rally; bonds and notes are higher but I think their recent runs are running out of gas; and gold and crude are somewhat range bound so I think this morning's weakness in both is limited.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

DX

The dollar index has bounced to 84.20. I think it can be sold here with a 40 point stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday Morning Update

Again, in general, stocks and bonds look like a buy and the dollar looks like a sale. The sp's have built resistance in the low 820's but it still looks bullish for now. The dollar has been range trading all week which looks like a consolidation that may break out again on the downside.

This mornings strength in May crude looks like it continue. It has made new highs for the move and may rally to 56.50. Gold, too, is strong this morning but looks more neutral.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Travel Day

I didn't get very far yesterday. As windy as Texas is, it has nothing on Wyoming. I'll try it again today.

As far as the markets go, generally it looks like you can buy weakness in stocks and bonds and sell strength in the dollar. I am more neutral both crude and gold from these levels. Have a good day and I hope to pick things up tomorrow from the office.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday's Markets

I will be traveling all day Tuesday so I will not be able to Post anything. Monday's early strength just kept getting stronger. If it doesn't continue Tuesday I would think it will at least hold on to much of the gains.

The dollar continues to look generally weak. I'm neutral to mildly bullish crude and still feel Gold will trade under 930.

I will update again on Wednesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trading.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Morning Update

Stocks are up 18+ off the new Geitner plan information...another trillon dollars. S&P's are looking better and may rally to the mid 800's in the intermediate term. Short term, meaning the first couple hours, I think is a coin toss.

The dollar traded down to 83.38 overnight but has since revcovered. This morning it looks like a sale at 8445 and a buy at 8400 for day tradng.

Ten year notes have maintained a very tight range since the Fed anouncement above 124.16. It remains bullsh on the longer term chart but the intraday charts are so sideways, it too is a coin toss for the next break out.

May crude is currently falling but I think there is support under 51.50 and resistance over 52.25. Gold can trade below 930 and I think if it trades back to the upper 950's it's a sale.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

DX

The dollar index has been pretty quiet the last few hours and doesn't seem like its going to break. I think the dollar is still bearish but realize there could be big moves over the weekend after such a volatile week. At minimum, I would keep a stop working.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

DX Stop

The dx is trading around 84.40 right now and put in a recent high of 84.55. It still looks to have a negative bias for now but it is worth noting that Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking at the top of the hour and could cause more volatility so it is important to have a stop in; 85.05 would be my stop level.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

DX

The dollar may be running out of steam already. I think you can sell 84.20 in the June DX for a day trade.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Morning Update

Yesterday's selloff in the sp as the day wore on gave the negative bias at least one more day to go. Again this morning it looks as if it can be switched to a positive one if we can end the day at these levels (currently 783) or above.

I'm generally bullish notes at this point. Yesterday afternoon it dipped to 124'14 below the 124'16 level I thought would be good support. That should remain a good spot to get long should we go back there for the day.

The dollar index is recovering modestly from the recent selloff. I think it should be played from the short side and will post a specific level as a daytrade emerges.

Crude is in the middle of its daily support resistance. I think you can fade it either way, ideally 49.30 to 53.80 in May, 48.40 to 53.80 in April. I'm neutral gold after it's big reversal the other day. Given the way the charts look (somewhat bearish) and what the dollar is doing, I'm standing aside.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

A trillion dollars can really change the enviornment in a hurray. The sp's are going to flip from a sell bias to a buy with anything close to an unchanged or better performance today. For now it looks like a range trade between low 780's to mid 790's.

Ten year notes look like a buy at 124'16. The dollar is in a free fall and a specific sell level is too far away to even list. I think it could possibly fall to 80. Crude is continuing its run but I think it would be a sale today above 53. I'm neutral gold.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Well the Fed statements certainly moved the markets some...to say the least. Stocks and bonds took off, as did gold and crude while the dollar tanked. The interest rate and fx moves are so big that they are likely to see some continuation. I think it is less clear in stocks.

Crude firmed up enough to keep the upward bias going. Gold firmed up, but like stocks, I think its less clear if it will continue significantly in the short run.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

We're an hour away from the release of the Fed meeting statements which may certainly move the markets around some. Nothing technically, however, has really changed from my morning post. I would not try to pick a bottom in either the dollar index or gold for the day. Crude is a little softer than I expected but there is still time for it to firm up and maintain its positive momentum.

I don't have a short term view of stocks from here.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday Morning Update

Stocks are lower but made new highs for the move late yesterday. I think it is ok to be short calls/call spreads up here and look to cover and sell puts/put spreads on a move back into the low 700's.

The dollar and gold are both weaker this morning. The dollar traded through 87.80 after my post yesterday and has been softening since. I think there is a real risk that it continues to decline. Gold also looks weak and missed my 922 level yesterday by topping at 921.7 after my post. It would be interesting to see both gold and the dollar continue to break but that's what they look like technically at this point.

Crude still looks somewhat bullish with potential to 52.50-55 (April). Support is at 47.80.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Webinar

There has been a mix up with the scheduling of the option webinar. It is not today as I thought and it is not next Tuesday the 24th as the link states, it is now going to be Tuesday March 31st, at 3:30 central. Thank you.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Morning Update

We had a huge increase in Feb housing starts released this morning but apparently not huge enough for the stock indexes. I think you can sell a rally to 764 with an 8 point risk and look for a move down to 735 in June sp.

Both Gold and the Dollar index also look somewhat bearish today. I would try to sell strength in both, 922 in April gold and 87.80 in the Dollar. Crude looks more bullish so I would look to buy weakness around 46.80.

Finally, I'm going to do an online webinar this afternoon after the markets close, 3:30 central, on options. If you would like to watch you can use the link below to sign up.

http://www.pfgbest.com/webinar/eventSummary.asp?skey=333410049


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Both the dx and EC traded back through our entry levels but gave some opportunity for some modest profits. The original 87.55 stop level in the DX may now be a new level to get short for an overnight trade but there is certainly more risk in entering a trade this late in the day for overnight than just daytrading.

I've been waiting for the recent strength in the stock indexes to show some signs of topping because the sp and nq are in areas where I think they are good longer term sales. The nasdaq has now turned a little negative for the day and I think it could be the beginning of the end for this move up.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stops on DX and EC

Move stops on the EC and DX to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC and Dollar index

Just for a short term trade, I think you can buy the June EC at 1.3005 with a 35 tick stop (1.2970) and look for 1.31 profit target.

Reverse trade for the dollar index would be selling the June dx at 87.30 with a 25 tick stop and look for 86.75.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

April Gold recently went traded down to 921.1 holding the overnight low of 919.60. It is now around 930. If you got long at 924 I would bring my stop to break even. If gold fails, I think it fails from right here.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Morning Update

Stocks are higher again after a three day rally. Short term continues to suggest buying dips but longer term it looks like on the high end of a range that should decline to the low 720's in the June SP.

The dollar index continues to look somewhat range bound from 87.50 to 88.60. EC as well.

I would not sell crude or gold at this point. Spots to consider getting long early Friday would be 46.50 in April CL and 924 in Gold.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold firmed up to 931, a bit more than I would have thought and may have killed any short term negative trade. It is more neutral now so if short I would cover under 920.

It jumped on the report that the Swiss Central bank cut rates to .25% and said it would intervene in the currency markets to dampen the SF's rise. The SF promptly sold off on the news 200+ ticks.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday Morning Update

The dollar index has just firmed up in the last 15 minutes to the top or its recent range. It may find resistance here around 88.90 (June) and support under 88.45

Stock index front months roll to June this morning. Bot the sp and nq are more neutral than they have been for quite some time in my view. About the same levels I mentioned late yesterday are still relevant for this morning, 708-740 in June sp and 1104 to 1130 in June nq.

Crude is more range bound also, but still has some negative momentum from its recent fall. 44 Should be good resistance at least the first several hours of trade today.

Gold is up to what I think is a pivotal level, 920. I think it could be a good sale early for a move back to 900.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The Nasdaq stalled right above the 1132 level at 1135.75. That level is analogous with 1145 in the SP. I think the NQ is going back under 1100 and SP's go back under 710.

The dollar just recently took out yesterday's low by a tick and bounced right back above 88.00. I still think the dollar is in a short term range.

Crude is back near 44.60 after dipping below it earlier and then rallying to 45.80. Again, for a little larger view, this area may hold for another run to the upper 40's. If that doesn't materialize then this level will be a more neutral area.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday Morning Update

Following up on the dollar comment from my last post yesterday, the dollar index traded back up over 89 to 89.035 and has since fallen to 88.00. As for this morning, it may just stay in the recent range and bounce back to 88.50. An early break of yesterday's low's of 87.83 may, however, signal further weakness. We'll look at it again if that happens.

Stock indexes are higher on follow through from yesterday's large gains. More gains today, and yesterday's in the NQ, will make the charts decidely more neutral between 810ish and 845 in the sp and 1100 and 1132 in the NQ.

Crude has longer term support around 44.60 (overnight low was 44.69) at least for one more day. The way the intra day charts look this morning I would think we can go test that level again (currently 45).

I'm more neutral gold for now around 900. More broadly it looks like a sale at 919 and a buy at 858.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's and the Dollar

The S&P's and certainly the NQ have done very well today. New sell levels for these markets will be around 746 and 1142 for tomorrow it looks like. As there wasn't much of a backup today, there may be an opportunity to trade it from the long side tomorrow.

It's kind of an odd time to comment on the dollar but it looks like it may be a nice sell around the 89.00 level for a move back down towards todays lows. We'll look for that trade in the morning.

Have a good night.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude and Gold Update

Crude finally made its way back to 46.80 and is now around 47. If it gets back to 47.25 I would place a stop at break even (including costs). I think crude can continue to grind higher but these are not entry levels for long term holds which I don't think I made clear.

Gold broke down to 892.5 and looks like it can continue to build a somewhat lower range but it is too late to trade it, in my view, today. I will most likely want to sell strength early again tomorrow.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's

For day trading only, I think you can buy the S&P in the mid 890's for the next hour or so and sell on further strength later in the day.

Option traders may want to consider legging into a short call spread by first purchasing a cheaper call with the intent on selling a more expensive one, hopefully at better levels, later in the day.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude and Gold

I think it's not a great risk reward to buy this strength in crude at this time of day; later perhaps but not now. I would be patient and look for 46.80. It's arguably a sell above 47.80 with a stop above yesterday's highs of 48.83 and a target of 46.80.

Gold looks weak and can be sold for a day trade around 911-916. I think gold can trade under 890.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Morning Update

The S&P's are going to open higher but near the levels we failed from yesterday. There is room technically to move substantially in either direction. I think it can push higher between mid 680's to mid 690's and ulitmately to the mid 700's in the not too distant future. But it's a tough call to bet on as the moves up won't have any longer term technical base or support and likely to be more opportunities to establish shorts. For now there is no basis for getting real bullish other than real short term day trading. That can change of course but it's not there yet. I think if the market rallies you can sell call spreads. The vix is still quite high and will decline most likely as the market rallies.

Crude continues to rally and I'll update at the top of the hour levels to consider getting long again. Just the reverse for short term gold trading.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Oil Stop

April Crude is around 47.30 now. If you got long at 46.50 or below I would place a stop at break even oco sell it at 47.50 for a short term trade.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold has softened to a point where I think it is a short term sale again. For the next hour or so, sell April at 930 with a $7 stop and look for another break of today's lows.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude oil and the S&P

Crude oil traded up to 48.83 but has since traded back a bit. Now I think it can be bought at 46.50 and look for another mover toward 49.50.

The S&P's early strength makes it a more neutral market around 682.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

New Week, Same Story

S&P's are going to open lower and continue to look weak. If we can rally to 682 in the first hour I think its a sale; it's currently 674.

The dollar is firm and can trade to 90.00 from it's current 89.40 level.

I continue to like crude and think it will push towards $49 (April).

Gold longer term still seems bullish but it is very neutral around 935 short term.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future result

Friday Markets

The unemployment data is out and terrible as expected...I don't need to go through the data. The sp is up moderately thus far, 690ish, but looks like any rally will meet strong resistance. The market has come down so far that significant rallies are a constant risk but are all likely to be sold. If we rally into the upper teens , >715, then I would look to add short call premium. The downside is really open ended technically. Short term support is in the upper 670's.

Ten year notes have stayed somewhat range bound but look a little more bullish now. Short term, 122'30 is support and 124'20 is resistance. I wouldn't expect notes to push the upper end of that range if stocks are rebounding.

The dollar index should see some support here under 88.40 but I would let this early weakness go for awhile to see if it gains any momentum. If not, later in the day, the dx may be a good buy here.

Gold is higher but I think you must buy weakness, below 930.

Yesterday I mentioned I thought CL was a buy under 43 and I see on the charts it went to 42.86 in the last hour of the regular session, but I didn't notice it at the time. I still am of the view CL can rally above 48. Today, under 44.40 in April would be a level to consider getting long.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Update on SP, EC, and Gold

The S&P traded above 700 briefly after the cash opening but has been under pressure since then, recently breaking yesterday's low's.

EC should've broken down again if it was good to the downside so I would exit the sale at 1.2550. Similar situation in gold, I would exit any shorts before the close.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold is a day trade sell here at 922 with a $15 stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Post Error

My last Post, for the EC, didn't come through on my email but three blank emails did an hour ago? It is on the blog itself ok. Please check the blog itself at your earliest convenience:

http://stopsandoptions.blogspot.com/




There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

The EC is breaking down today towards a very pivotal level, 124.50-80. Initially, that is a buy zone on a daily chart for today, but the early intraday charts are very negative. A break of this level very well could lead to a move to test the Oct low of 1.2351 and 1.2220 below that. I think it can be sold above 1.2550 with a 100 point stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday Morning Update

The S&P is lower again this morning. I think the early trade is to sell strength, around 698-700. If we can hold near Tuesday's lows, 681.50, for the first several hours of the day, then I believe we can make another run at yesterday's highs prior to tomorrow's release of the unemployment data. The big picture still remains technically very weak regardless of these short term rallies.

Gold has rebounded overnight to the mid teens (816). I think first time up into the low 820's, near yesterdays highs, would be a sale. The picture may swing back postive in the next day or two if it can hold.

The dollar is up and continues to look bulllish. ECB and BOE cut rates again as there economies are potentially worse off than ours.

April crude oil looks like a buy this morning under 43.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

A daily April gold chart is shown below. We recently broke yesterday's low and now headed towards the bottom of the Bollinger Band line which is currently around 870. If we get there, that will be a place to consider getting long.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

April Gold is trading around 910. This is a good spot to cover day trade shorts if you sold near 920 as mentioned in first update this morning. If gold breaks yesterday's low of 905.7 we may get a bigger selloff and I would look for 870.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday Morning Markets

The S&P is up in pre market trading to 700 after another weak performance yesterday. Resistance should come in around 712 early and 730ish if we somehow gain some momentum. I continue to think selling calls on rallies is the way to go with a vix near 50.

Ten year notes are lower, 122'02, after failing the last couple of days over 123'00. An early rally to 122'12 would be an opportunity to get short and with 121 as an objective.

The dollar remains bullish with support around 89.00.

Gold's drop yesterday was a little more than I expected and has hurt the charts somewhat. April is now trading 920 and is probably a day trade sale at this point. 870 would be an excellent buying opportunity if we can get there.

Crude is trying to push higher again today and I think you can go with it, at least initially. As I said a few days ago, it looks like it has room to rally to 48.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

Stocks continue to look terrible. Rallies should be sold...calls and/call spreads are preferred with the vix so high, 50+. 720 and 740 would be resistance if we can rally. Bernanke and Geitner speak this morning so who knows how the markets will react to their testimonies, but technically, it's probably a sale at any level above yesterday's close.

Ten year notes are more neutral looking but still a sale around 123'00 like yesterday. It seems like the federal budget mess etc...is more negative for stocks than fixed income in the short run as the continuing struggling economy trumps future inflation fears.

Even gold is softening more. Gold has short term support today under 925 and resistance at 940.

The dollar looks bullish and I will try to come back with specific trade there today.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

Stock indexes are down again, trading below 720. I want to sell calls on strength and the upper 720's early in the day would be the first opportunity if we get there.

Ten year notes have resistance at 123'00 and would provide a good opportunity to sell calls if we get there, particulary early in the day.

The Dollar index continues to look mildly bullish. 87.80-88.10 is support.

Gold is in a short term range here today but I am generally bullish. The overnight range is 940-960 and I think it can stay within those levels today.

April crude oil is down $3 to 41.70. There still may be a short term rally to $48 in the coming days and this, under 42.40, should be support. Longer term charts are still very bearish so this, if it develops, would be a rally to sell into for the bigger picture.



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results