S&P's

The SP went through the stop.  I think the market is likely to pull back but that's it for today...and the year.  Thanks to all who are reading and for all the positive comments.  I look forward to all the volatility that is undoubtedly in store for us in '09.

Happy New Year!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

BP and Stocks

The British Pound was a good trade to wrap up the year but I can't help mentioning another trade as ill advised as it may be:  the S&P looks like a sale for a day trade only at 896.25 (it just made a high of 896.50).  Risk 3 points and look for a move back to unchanged.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

BP

The BP has traded to 1.4669 and has probably run its course for now.  Time to get out.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

BP stop

With the BP up 200 this morning, raise stop to 1.4475.  Look to exit at 1.4660.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

The S&P went through our stop.  It's too strong to short and we'll look to re-establish short put positions on weakness.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

BP stop and Crude

The entry level for getting long the BP worked well today.  But it will shift lower for tomorrow so I want to move the stop up to break even to protect our modest gains from today.

Not entering crude at 38 earlier turned out to be a big mistake but we should have more opportunities.  I think crude can bounce back to $44.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

S&P's can be sold here at 879.25 with a 5.25 point stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude oil and BP

Feb crude is currently at 38.00 and has built up some momentum in its decline.  We need to see the downward momentum ease before getting long.  

The March British Pound is a potential buy for a bounce from 1.4370.  Buy it there with a 70 point stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The late rally back in the stock market yesterday didn't change the short term damage to the charts.  Today we will look to sell strength there and in the yen.  

Crude and Sugar are the other makets in focus, both look like buys on weakness.  Feb Crude around 38.30 with a 1.20 stop...but I'll be back if we get down there.  Currently we are trading at 38.80. March sugar needs to back up to around 11.00 to buy it.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen

The March yen is trading in a sell zone, currently 1.1115, and a short trade can be made today if it firms up to 1.1145 with a 60 point stop and intitial target of 1.1030.  Also,  March Yen puts are trading at much cheaper implied volatility levels than the calls.  Buying March 1.0500 puts, currently around 80, would be an alternative way to play it. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's and Dollar Index

The top chart is a weekly sp and the bottom chart is a daily dollar index.  The weekly sp is very similar to what the dollar index looked like last Wednesday and Friday prior to the overnight break.  With today's weakness thus far in the stock indexes it appears that there may be more room to decline.  For a short term trade you could sell 863.50 and risk 4 points with an open ended profit target for now.  That would also be a reasonable level to start covering short put positions.

It's worth mentioning that I earlier recommended to get out of short dollar index positions not because of the daily chart, but because of the weekly and other time frames.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Dollar Index and Gold

Feb Gold has made an overnight high of 892 and the March dollar index made a low of 80.43.  These are the moves mentioned last Wednesday and Friday and possibly have run their course.  It may be a bit early to go the other direction with them but its probably a good time to get out of short dollar index and long gold positions.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's

Here's an early look at the S&P for the week ahead:

http://sites.google.com/a/stopsandoptions.com/www/market-and-other-commentary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

The Dollar and Gold

The charts look similar to Wednesday's in that the dollar index and Gold look like the markets with the most potential near term; with the dollar falling and gold rallying.  Stocks look positive and ten year notes look negative but the expected moves are much smaller.

I'll be back with specific levels as they develop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday Trading

With a shortened trading day, there is less incentive to get involved.  However, indexes and gold have a bullish bias while ten year notes and the dollar index are bearish.  The dollar index and gold are almost inverse charts to each other and both look like their respective moves could be substantial.  I would expect much more modest moves with stocks and notes.  

Happy Holidays!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Sp's look like they will trade between low 860's and upper 870's today.  Volume is extremely light so I'm not sure I trust the pre Holiday charts as much as I normally would.

Gold is weak as the dollar strengthens a little today.  I think there might be a trade to $870 in Feb gold.  If that develops in the next several days there would be a nice sell signal at that point to bring us back down towards $800.  Similar patterns in reverse appear with the dollar index.

Ten years look toppy again at least for a modest correction to 125'20.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen

Let's go ahead and cancel the yen order as we were a bit late on it and the numbers will change for tomorrow.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Markets

We have had a few markets trading in areas with possible trade set ups.  The Canadian and Gold were in their sell zones but without good futures signals.  The yen, however, has recently moved down into its buy zone and we have a signal to buy 1.1080 with a 60 point stop and an initial target of 1.1220.

Stock indexes are weak again but without sell signals.  Even with a continued declining vix, writing puts in the stock indexes is something to consider for the final weeks of the year.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

There is very little to talk about regarding trading patterns this morning.  However, the VIX is at its lowest levels since early October and its decline continues to aid our short sp put positions.  The indexes, though, remain mixed technically.

It seems like a low volume day but there is still a lot of time and anything can happen.  If I see anything noteworthy I will post it.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stopped in Stocks

In and out of stocks.  No sell signal though.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

NQ and SP's

Both the sp and nq are set up for buys near current prices, 888 and 1210 with 10 and 12 point risks respectively. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen

The Yen has met yesterday's initial objective of 1.1175 (now trading around 1.1140).  I would take profits if you're still in.  A buy signal may develop around 1.1080.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

CD stop and the VIX

The Canadian came within 5 ticks of the stop and then within 4 ticks of the initial objective before coming back down through break even.  I'd stand aside here.  I wanted to trail a stop on this trade as I thought it had potential to rally to the overnight highs.  Now we will have to wait to see how things pan out from this last selloff.

Stocks are trying to rally and the Vix has been coming off nicely for our short put positions.  The nasdaq in particular may develop a buy signal on intraday weakness. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Canadian Dollar

Move stop to break even in Canadian dollar.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Canadian Dollar

Buy the March Canadian Dollar at 8330 with a 25 point stop and a 8380 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

To follow up on a couple of yesterday's trades:  Notes dropped a point since the last sell signal and have about returned to the entry point.  The stop has been moved to break even and should remain there if anyone is still in it.  The Yen declined overnight as well but is rebounding.  Move stop to 1.1365.

Today, the dollar continues to decline but risk/rewards for entering are getting worse.  The BP and CD are a little behind the other currencies and may offer the best place on a risk/reward basis to get long.  I'll come back with numbers there.

Stock indexes generally look positive but I have no trade numbers at this point. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten year note stop

Move Ten Year Note stop to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten Year notes

There is a sale in the ten year notes at 128'10 with a 1'10 stop.  Another shorter term trade should develop with a further rally to 128'14 with about a 10 tick stop.  Now is not the time to cut the puts we bought earlier.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Missed Gold

Scratch the gold sale for now, I missed it.   

The Yen short survived a surge near the stop but has come back down.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Sell Feb gold at 882 with  10.00 stop and a 862 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen

Sell March Yen at 11395 with 110 point stop and 1.1175 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Stocks are looking better (no surprise after a 40 point rally) and I'm looking to buy weakness today.  I still like holding short put premium positions in the stock indexes.

Treasury futures continue to rally against what I thought might be toppy levels.  The technicals remain bullilsh and I'm looking for a spot to reduce that exposure.

The dollar continues to decline against most currencies.  The only future in a 'zone' is the Yen in a sell Zone.  It's a place to roll calls higher if you have them.  A short futures trade should develop on further strength today around 1.1380.  

Nothing in crude or gold at these levels and chart patterns.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Out of Crude

Crude went through the last stop level of 44.30.  It is time to stand aside in crude as it has not been able to hold a rally and the technicals may not look like a buy tomorrow.  

I still think it is ok to be short stock index put premium (put spreads) and long ten year note put premium.  The futures trades in these two markets just haven't developed in the last few days. Maybe the Fed will help us out with that.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Stop

We can raise the stop in crude again to 44.35.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Raise stop in Crude

Raise stop in Crude oil to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stopped in Crude

We're out of Crude at our stop of 45.30.  It is a buy if we get to 44.00 with a stop at 42.80 stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Oil stop

Move stop in CL again to 45.30.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Oil

Crude oil is up over $1.00 on the day so far.  Move stops to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude, Stocks

We're in for round two with the crude.  The original numbers are fine with a $2 stop.  

Stock indexes have been weak all day and pressing the lows.  I don't get sell signals when the market is in a daily buy zone...there is no target to the downside.  Depending on how the charts change we could get trades in either direction tomorrow. All the stock indexes look generally the same.  

The dollar index still looks very weak and could see a move down towards 8040.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Move Crude Stop

Move stop to break even in crude oil.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Oil

Crude has had a big range again so far today.  Jan CL topped early at 50.05 and has been headed lower since.  It has dropped now enough to consider buying it again.  Buy Jan Crude at 44.80 with a $2.00 stop and a target back to the earlier $50.05 high.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Dollar Index

This is the March Dollar Index daily chart.  I want to point out that it is in an expanding downtrend.  The EC and SF charts look just the opposite.  The dollar has been my focus this morning although it and many of the currency futures have already made large moves which may continue.  

I'm neutral stocks here and think crude and gold are being helped by the dollar weakness but their respective up moves are probably limited.  We saw the potential correction coming in crude from the end of last week but I think it will largely run its course in the low 50's.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Update

Notes went through the stop and we missed the NQ on the last move down.   Cancel the Nasdaq trade for now.  If we break again the numbers may be different and if its too late in the day it won't be worth the risk.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten year notes and NQ

Sell March Ten year notes at 123'20 with a 124'00 stop and 120'22 target...or buy March puts or put spreads.

Buy March NQ at 1182 with a 1174 stop. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market update

The volatility is such that I'm just not getting good risk/reward setups.  I think stocks are likely to hold in here if not rally again.  There is a trade now to buy NQ's at 1185ish  with a 1171 stop, with a 1305 target. But the market has to close higher or it may be an exit on close. (Will likely raise levels as market and the day progresses).  

I think it is ok to be short stock index put premium (credit put spreads) and long ten year note puts or put spreads.  Late yesterday's and earlier today's volatility is why I like to couple futures trading with option positions. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Markets

Crude oil this morning is set up reverse of what ten year notes was yesterday.  It's picking a bottom and with a fairly wide stop but I think Crude is a buy early today.  The bottom may be in already today but if Jan crude trades 43 in the next couple hours its a buy with a $2.50 stop.  48, then 50.50 would be the targets.

The dollar looks weak, EC looks strong, and very mixed to say the least in the sp's.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's stopped

The sp's got stopped on the evening opening.  We'll start with a clean slate in the morning.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

If we can avoid the stop overnight  in the S&P we may get the move tomorrow that I thought we might get today.  Have a good night.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

I didn't realize the market was dropping so much as I sent the last post.  Now we can buy the SP at 877 with a 10 point stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

My earlier optimism regarding the potential in stocks has proven to be wishful thinking.  Still no buy signals, and it very well may give a sell signal next.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market update

We got stopped out of the ten year futures with a small gain and likely will get more sell signals.  The puts are in good shape.

Stock indexes are moving up and for the first time in awhile it is setting up where we might be able to go with it.  Should have specific numbers within an hour.  

Dollar index is down to today's buy zone but if it doesn't climb out of here today, it is going to look more bearish.  Possibly setting the stage for a correction down to below 8100.  This time the yen is not going with it making the dollar weak across the board.

Dollar weakness must be contributing to strength in gold and other commodities.  Oil may finally be developing a range after its long fall.  A move to over 50 is developing.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Move Futures stop

Move ten year note futures stop to 123'22.5.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Note Futures

As my earlier Post mentioned, I think this morning is a good time to take a shot at buying puts on the notes.  I prefer that over the futures but as a futures trade it would be to sell a March ten year note future at 123'26 with a 24 point stop and an initial objective of 122'10.

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten Year Note Options

This morning's rally in Ten year notes, currently at 123'22, offers a good opportunity to buy March  Note puts.  I think the market can correct back towards 120'16.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Move ten year stop again

Move Ten year stop to 122'20

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Move Stop on Ten Year

Move stop on Ten year note to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten Year Notes

Sell March Ten Year notes at 122'25 with a 10 tick stop and an initial target of 122'05

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten year notes and Gold

Both Ten year notes and Gold are likely to offer day trades in the direction of their early moves...down in notes and up in gold, but levels are not yet certain.  There looks to be some room for these moves to continue.   Early guess is that we'll sell notes in the 122'20's and buy gold under 800.

We were stopped out of SP's  quickly in the overnight session with a break even trade.  SP's are giving mixed signals.  Dow looks most positive of the indexes.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP Update

With the Sp's holding there low's but still finishing weak, I would move the stop to break even.  We very well may get a sell signal tomorrow near the current stop level. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

Sell Dec SP at 892 with a 10 point stop and a 872 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Cancel Sugar Trade

We've missed the sugar offer at 11.45 and now its too late in the day, so cancel the trade and we'll look for new levels tomorrow in sugar.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sugar

We had a nice long trade in Sugar we got out of yesterday.  Today I think we can sell 11.45 with a 30 point risk and look for a move back down to 10.75.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC, Canadian Dollar, and Stocks

Today we may get a new long trade in EC and Canadian dollar.  The EC just recently, in the last hour, went down to touch the Buy zone level of 1.2765 but we need a bit more weakness to buy it...same with Canadian.  

Stocks look as they did yesterday,  that they should be bought at lower prices. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stocks and Sugar

The stock indexes are much higher following through on Friday's turnaround.  It last looked this positive on Election day which, of course, didn't work out.  This is different in that the SP was at 1000 then and now its around 900.  960 is early new upside target although we will look to buy it in low 880's for now. 

Sugar is also up this morning.  Move stops to 10.85 and take profits at 11.15.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's Ten year notes

Sp's are too strong to sell here as we approach the end of the week.  But as we trade into what has been resistance all week, I would pass also on buying it.  

One interesting item worth noting is the Key Reversal in the ten year notes today.  It may be a sign the panic flight to quality is ebbing and a return to riskier assets a consideration.  Further strength in the sp's could push the sell zone to the 960's, but that's getting ahead of ourselves.  We'll see how the charts look on Monday.  Have a nice weekend.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

This is a good profit level at 850 for this quick of a rally.  Ultimately we may move to and beyond yesterday's highs, but for now, I'd  get out.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Both SP's and sugar have broken the early lows and have rebounded some.  Raise stop on SP to break even with the market now at 840. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Update

This morning's first Post was too late to get the recommended trades.  They are still good but may have to be revised.

It's probably worth noting, if you haven't been following the Buy Sell Zone changes, that many of the markets we follow; stock indexes, some currencies, and gold, have all been contracting into smaller and smaller ranges.  With these set ups, we get a lot more trades that are 'fades' than momentum trades...like buying stocks today and gold the last few days. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sugar correction

The March Sugar trade from the previous post should read 10.62 not 11.62.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P and Sugar

Two early trade signals are buy the SP here at 826 with a 14 point stop and buy March Sugar at 11.62 with a 30 point stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold and Sugar

Gold came right back down as you know if you're watching the markets.  Same trade basically from the last couple days still applies although I feel we're pressing our luck in front of tomorrow's unemployment news.  However, there is a signal to buy 764 with a 7.00 risk and a  14.00 target.

Also,  sugar has broken substantially from recent consolidation and is now set for a short term reversal.  Buy March sugar at 10.80 with a 30 point stop and 11.40 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Update

Gold has moved higher and is now in the sell zone for the day.  If it can maintain 780 and above today, the sell zone for tomorrow will shift up to 847ish.  Raise stop to 772 gtc or take profits above 780.

Also, I've added a link on the right side of this blog to the Buy/Sell Zone levels I update every morning for your convenience.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Stop

If you're long gold, move stop to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold, Dollar index

Gold traded up overnight over 776 and then retreated to stop us out with small gains in gold.  However, it's a buy again here at 765 with a 6 dollar stop.

The dollar index is set up for a sale at 87.75 with a 50 pt stop and minimum 100 point target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Update

Feb Gold dipped just enough to get us in.  Move stop to break even if we reach 776 today.  

The recent dip into the 30's in the sp gave us a chance to roll some puts but it wasn't low enough for a futures signal.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Buy Feb gold at 768 with an 8.00 stop and a 784 inititial target price.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

It turns out that I missed the SP's and not gold.   We want to do bullish SP trades on weakness  for now, not strength.  We should get more chances today if we're patient.

Another trade to consider is buying puts on the JY.  It briefly went into the sell zone, over 10800, a little while ago and should correct lower if stocks continue to recover.  Implied volatility on Yen puts are 30% cheaper than the calls and bid/ offer spreads are more narrow.  

Finally, on Gold:  I would recommend calls on gold here but bid/spreads are so wide I don't know where fills would be. A long futures trade should develop there today eventually.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

We need to wait on gold as it is too weak.  Perhaps later in the day.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P's

I suggest rolling puts from existing put spreads down to lower strike prices to take more premium out of the market if we reach 820.  At that price, you could also buy contracts with a 15 point stop and an initial target of 850 and perhaps 870.

I may have missed gold but will update levels at the top of the hour.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's and Gold

Looks like SP's and Gold both may be developing a trade to get long this morning.  It's too early to give levels but I will update.  

As it turned out the dollar index rallied yesterday and is up again this morning while the EC and BP have resumed weakness.  These markets were very mixed yesterday and now trading in the middle of their zones.  I don't have strong convictions with the currencies at this point.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

DX, EC, and BP

The dollar index just made a new low by a tick or so to 8647.  The signals are too mixed at these levels at this time for me to pull the trigger.  Both the EC and BP futures look bullish short term as well and the three contracts will not all rally together.  

Today looks like it will be limited to shorter term signals for all these markets.  I will post new levels as they develop. Same goes for the stock indexes.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The large moves yesterday in many of the financial futures really broadened out the Buy/Sell Zones and made for a little more short term uncertainty as far as generating new trade signals. 

 

The dollar index, however, is about to setup for a long trade near todays lows, around 8650, with about a 50 point risk and a target of 8850.  I'll update soon as that develops.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

Today's SP move is a good lead into mentioning I put a new attachment on the main page of the Stops and Options website earlier, 

 http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/  

Feel free to contact me with any questions.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, EC update

Looks like a quick daytrade selling the sp at 854 with a 5 point stop and the lows as a target has developed.  It is good only until 11:30 central unless further updated.  

Also, I'd scratch the EC trade here at 1.2620 as the numbers may very well look more negative as the day wears on.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

SP's have moved into the longer term Buy Zone which has given us opportunity to roll puts lower and take some premium out of the market.  There may, however, be a daytrade sell later, which I will Post at the appropriate time.

Also, the EC went through the purchase price from earlier. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, Swiss, and EC

Stock indexes are lower this morning which is helping our put spreads from Friday.  As the SP's near the Buy Zone of 861 we will want to roll the long puts from out spreads down to a lower strike to take money out of the trade.  For those who bought the Jan 700/650 put spreads, we will most likely be able to recover our purchase price  by rolling the 700's down to 725 and leaving us 725/700 put spreads.

Buy the Dec SF at 8230 with a 40 point stop and a 8310 initial target.

Buy the Dec EC at 1.2620 with a 60 point stop and a 1.2740 initial target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, Gold

The SP's gave us a chance to buy some put spreads which I'm comfortable with. There is still a short term signal to be short from 890 with a 898 stop. It's probably not worth the weekend risk and the numbers will change for Monday, so I'd get out moc.

Gold continues to be on a open ended bullish signal.

We'll pick it up next week. Have a great weelend.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

Sell Dec SP at 890 with an 8 point stop. Target is 864.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, Gold

With today's shortened trading session, I would buy SP puts or put spreads if we trade back near 890.

Also, the fairly aggressive buy levels in Feb gold are going to shift lower if it can't make some progress to the upside today. But for now, as the past couple trading sessions, I think you can buy gold around 811. The stop level is a relatively tight $3.00. Upside target for at least today is still open, however, 826 should be resistance.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Happy Thanksgiving!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's rallying without us

We missed getting in at 862 by 1/2 point. Now it is almost at the target so we need to cancel the order and look for another.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP Update

We need to raise the prices in the SP. Buy 862 with an 852 stop. Same 880 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's, Gold

Buy SP's at 859 with an 849 stop. Looking for 880.

Feb gold traded under 810 briefly. The stop level should be as close as 6.00 which seems very tight with this kind of volatility and holiday trading hours. I would recommend buying feb calls if we go back to 810.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold, Dow,

With most markets closing early today, it is likely to be quiet. The Dow chart offers a ray of hope for stock bulls with a sign of consolidation. There may be a trade to buy it later.

Gold still looks positive. Buy calls or contracts under 810 (Feb). I'll update stop levels if we get there.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

Some of these markets have made moves the last few trading days that may turn out to be more than short term corrections. It's still a bit early in the stock indexes, but the dollar index and yen seem to have more work to do going down while the ec and gold have more upside. Sp's may back to 880's and possibly over 900.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, Sugar

The SP looks very short term neutral within the larger sell picture. Some daytraders may want to take profits here in mid 50's.

Sugar looks just like gold did a few days ago at 745. A straddle at 11.75 may work well for a larger move in either direction.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP stop

Move the sp stop down to break even as market goes negative on the day.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The counter trend moves from yesterday continue. The dollar index, currency, and sp futures trades have all gone through there respective stop levels. Stock indexes still look like a sale and buying puts are probably the way to go. With sp futures I would sell 868 with a 20 point stop with a initial target of 830.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Buy/Sell Zones

Buy/Sell Zones have been updated for Tuesday, November 25th:

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

I think upper 830's are a good place to buy puts on the SP's. Mini sp puts are still very liquid. That and the treasury futures offer the most liquidity in options. Because of that and the extreme volatility, I'd favor buying puts to selling futures. For those more inclined to trade futures, the numbers for this trade are sell dec sp at 837, risk 35 points, target 750.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Out of Sugar and into Currencies

Sugar went through 11.70 to 11.77. I'd be flat here.

The dollar index, ec and bp all went through earlier levels to enter positons.

Stock indexes are likely to develop sell signals a little higher; 8385 in the dow, 835 in sp and 1140 in nq.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Currencies, Sugar

The dollar index may have at least one more rally in it from today's early weakness. Buy the Dec DX at 8660 with a 90 pt stop and a 8850 target.

The EC and BP look just the opposite. Sell Dec EC at 1.2785 with a 120 pt stop and a 1.2500 target and Sell the Dec BP at 1.5050 also with a 120 point stop and a 1.4800 target.

Shorter term trades with tighter stops may develop throughout the day.



Sugar is higher from Friday's entry. I would move the stop to 11.45 and continue to target 11.70. Also, if stopped I would look to re-enter from lower levels (11.25).



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sugar

Buy March sugar at 11.35 with a 11.20 stop and a 11.75 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Yesterday morning I Posted that Gold had consolidated so much near 745 it was worth considering long straddles there. Well today it is breaking out to the upside, and if most of this move can hold, it shifts the outlook considerably to the upside...820. I will watch for a good long futures trade and Post it asap.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten year notes, SP's

Ten year notes are the only market starting out in a trade zone this morning. A buy wouldn't come until lower prices or later in the day however, around 119'12.

After yesterday's terrible finish in the sp's, the charts only look worse. Sell levels are higher though and will monitor for day trades.

On a side note...What looks like the Mother of All Tops is the cash SP monthly chart; a double top from the March 2000 and last October's ('o7) highs, breaking the October 2002 low which we accomplished yesterday. The projection would be to zero. More optimistically, a trend line from the August '82 lows through the August '84 lows and the '87 lows comes in about 725. I hope that holds.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP stop

The sp recently went back through 792. That is a lot of volatility for a scratch. I'm looking for shorter term trades but they haven't developed in either direction. There is still a lot of time for that to happen.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP stop

Now move the stop in SP to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP Comment

Here is an observation from today's sp trade that I see more frequently than you might think. The trades are based on standard deviations from recent trading as you may understand from the website material. Today's levels of buying 792 with an 18 point stop are derived from recent volatility. The market declined 17.75 pts below the entry and then topped out 16 points above the entry. Pretty symmetrical and often an indication I was early. At the point it would have rallied 18 points from entry, often times I recommend to move stops to break even. We just went back to the entry point. I wrote a brief article related to this that you can find on the link below and the website.

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/market-c/stops-vs--options

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Close Call

It's far from over but the 774 stop was missed by a tick in the mini and a half point in the pit. I want to just mention that while the SP was closing in on the stop price suggested, the dow and NQ were just hitting theire respective buy zones. If we hold we may have more long day trade signals with tighter identifiable stops.


Also, Dec crude did go back through 50.20 to 49.76, but if you want to trade the mini crude you have to move to Jan. The corresponding level in Jan Crude is 50.50. Same 2.00 stop with a 54.80 initial target in Jan.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Oil

We may have just missed this but if Dec Crude trades back down to 50.20 it s a buy with a 2.00 stop and a 54.50 target. Would be consistent with a bounce in SP but a fairly large risk. It is also a level to roll down any existing long put positions.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP NQ

The SP and NQ are near their respective buy zones for the day. Technically it's a buy in the sp at 792 with an 18pt stop and an initial target of 830.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sugar, Currencies, Gold

Sugar is the only market starting the day in a buy or sell zone this morning. Weakness to around 11.35 (March) would be a level to consider buying calls.

The recent corrective moves in the dollar index, yen, EC, and BP are in jeopardy at current levels and may resume their longer term trends without a reversal today. As mentioned yesterday, these moves were not likely to continue without stock indexes getting on board. There is still no real sign of better stock index prices at this point and continued weakness hinders the corrections in the above mentioned markets.

Gold is stuck in its narrow Buy/Sell band and is so tight it may be worth considering long straddles when trading near 745.

If your subscription is not providing timely updates on the Posts, you can contact me to get on a direct email list. Buy/Sell Zones are updated on the website, http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stocks, EC

We are approaching buy zones in the stock indexes again similar to yesterday afternoon. This is more of a setup to take money off the table for existing shorts (roll puts if you own them) than to get long; the market is often vulnerable to bounces with this technical set up.

The EC has pulled back consideraly from earlier levels and is in a good position to buy calls around the recent lows of 1.2530-40.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold, Currency, Stock Index Comment

Gold has spiked up into the 760's. If it can maintain these gains the Sell Zone will shift dramatically higher for tomorrow (around 790ish). Gold has made this run in part due to the weak dollar/rising currencies (EC and BP are up big today), which was somewhat telegraphed by the recent buy/sell zones.

However, the Stock indexes of late have tended to move with the currencies and gold (and oil to a lesser extent). I wouldn't expect the stock indexes , currencies and gold to continue as they are today going in different directions. Stocks again may join the party on the upside or if not, I would expect these moves in EC, BP and Gold to stall.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold, Sugar

For any long Gold positions from yesterday, I would put in break even stops at this point and continue to look for 747.

Also, I've been watching more markets and have added both Sugar and Cotton to the Buy/Sell Zone list on the website. Sugar is in a Buy Zone where you can buy 7.48 risking 13 ticks and look for 7.80. This is actually now late ,(March sugar is at 11.60) but I'll continue to Post trades for these markets.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

First off today, if you are not receiving timely updates on the new Posts during the day, you can contact me and I can add you to a direct email list.

Also, don't forget that you can go to the Buy/Sell Zone page on the Stops and Options website,

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

for a more complete list of markets than the ones I focus on in the Posts.

Today looks similar to yesterday in that the Dollar index and Yen remain in their Sell zones while the EC and BP are in their buy zones. I'll be updating as I see daytrades in those markets.

Gold is stuck in a narrow range we've traded several times. This tight range is unlikely to continue for too long. Again, I will update daytrade levels shortly.

The stock indexes nearing their Buy Zones late yesterday turned into a great level to take money off the table for existing shorts. The aggressive buy idea may have had a bit too high of a target. Stocks indexes are still not set up for sustained long positions.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

For those of you reading last Friday, you know there was a sell futures/ buy puts recommendation when the SP's rallied to 914. We're now approaching the buy zone, low 820's (it was listed as 823 on the Buy/Sell Zone page of the Stops and Options website) but now looks like 21). which is where you would want to roll the put down to take some profits off the table. NQ is in similar position. A very aggressive trade would be to buy sp's here at 827 and risk to 810. Upside target is 880.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen Stop

The yen stop level has been hit, 103.65.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Yen

Sell dec yen at 1.0340 with a 10365 stop and 1.0280 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Stop

Gold went through our 735 stop level. Although the same basic trade from this morning is still in place, buy 731 sell 747, I wanted to protect some profits. It may prove costly to have exited but if gold continues to rally, more trades will develop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

BP, Gold update

I like the idea of getting long British Pound calls here, around 1.4980. A long futures trade wouldn't develop until about 1.49 10 but we may not get there. Jan 170 BP calls are offered at 70 ($6.25 /tick makes them about $400+).

Gold came down to 735.2 so it barely missed our stop. It may suprise us to the upside if we can stay in it.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold just rallied into the 740's. Move stop to 735.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold just made new lows to 730.30 and provided an opportunity to get long. Keep stop at 725.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Currencies and Gold

Similar to yesterday morning, we have the dollar index and the yen futures in sell zones while the EC and gold are in buy zones. The BP also now is in a buy zone. I'll be watching initially for moves to 87.45 in the DX and 1.0425 in the yen to establish puts and or short futures positions (details on entry levels and stops to come if we approach those general levels). Also, I'm looking for 1.2550 in the EC, 1.4910 in the BP, and 731 agin in gold to establish long positions. Again, I'll update specific stop levels as we appoach those levels.

Gold is set up similar to yesterday so we have the same trade: buy 731 (today with a $6 stop) and a, sell 747.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Exit

Gold is technically in a sell zone now above 747. I'd exit the day trade and cancel the stop. The mid 730's may very well be another opportunity to get long for a short term trade rather than get stopped out.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold Stop

Move stop on gold up to at least break even (731), and probably should be put at 738. I think gold should hold 738 if its going to continue today.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

I think you can buy Dec Gold here at 731 with a 722 stop and a 750 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dollar Index, Yen, EC

This morning both the dollar index and yen futures are in Sell Zones which suggests buying puts to open. Conversely, the EC continues from last week to look like a buy.

I would think these currency setups would suggest some strength in the stock indexes but it's not showing up as of yet technically.

Gold and Oil are also approaching buy levels, to get long with gold calls and to get out of any short oil positions.

Stocks

This is technically a sale, at 914 in the dec sp with a 20 point risk, or buy puts.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stock Indexes and EC

Despite yesterday's rally in stocks they still generally look more negative than positive. There could be day trades in either direction but another move to the highs will likely be an opportunity to buy puts.

EC, however, does still look positive and think there will be a day trade buy soon. (It's been rally as I've been entering this post). Day trade levels change quickly so I don't like to post levels too early. If it does trade down towards 1.2530 though, it would be another opportunity to buy calls.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Dec Gold just briefly rallied into today's sell zone (751) where it would be a good place to sell calls bought previously.

http://sites.google.com/site/stopsandoptions/buy-sell-zones

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Markets Turn

After yet another day with heavy volatility, gold and EC are headed higher as suggested earlier. It is certainly hard to pick stop levels some times and that's the best time to consider long options. The bid/offers are wider but at least you can ride through some of the short term volatility without getting stopped out.



In general, the stock indexes, crude, gold, and all the currencies except the yen have tended to move together while the dollar index, yen futures, and to a lesser extent the ten year notes move in the other. Today those relationships are working agian but in reverse directions since election day.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stock Indexes and Crude Oil

The indexes and crude are pushing the lows of their trading bands and are vulnerable for significant rallies.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC and Gold

Both Gold and Euro currency are set up to rally. To establish some exposure I would look at the Feb Gold 1000 calls and Jan EC 1.40 call near yesterday's settlements if possible...4.90 in the gold call and mid 50's in the EC call. There should be short term futures trades to get long as the day progresses.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

New lows were just made in the sp to 862. I'd cover the short here. The market is getting oversold. Also, this is the beginning of the buy zone from this morning's email.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Lower sp stop to 870.50.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP

Here at 870 I'd move my stop to break even in sp.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP, EC

Sell SP at 875.50 with a 5 pt stop and new lows for the day as target...go for the next half hour. The EC is nicely higher from this mornings email levels and maybe beginning a larger move. A day trade long may develop later.



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Gold has broken down through this morning's stop level. It is still set up, however, for a move to the upper 700's. Purchasing calls would be a way to stay long through anymore short term weakness.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

Sell Dec EC at 1.2550 with a 1.2570 stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.