Friday, January 30, 2009

S&P's

The stock market is down again and softening.  We had better than expected 4th quarter GDP data earlier but the focus is on the ongoing concern of a worsening economy and the diminishing (in my view anyway) likelihood that much can be done about it.  The index charts are very negative but, as I have mentioned several times, I think there is substantial room for bear market corrections.  I don't have a strong short term conviction on stocks at this time as much as I'm searching for one.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Stocks and Bonds

Both stocks and bonds traded very poorly today.  The fundamental economic news and the information coming out of Washington are just overwhelmingly negative.  Gold, however, looks positive again and had a nice rally.

We were stopped out of the note trade and will take a fresh look tomorrow.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

10 year notes

I think you can buy the 10 year note here at 123'11 with a 10 tick (123'01) stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

The S&P's should find support in the low 850's and near term resistance in the mid 860's.   Ten year notes also are near support around 123'11. 

The dollar is still very mixed and I think it can trade between 8440 and 8570.

Gold continues to correct from recent strength and may have more to go.  There are inventory numbers coming later for crude, but for now it looks like strength should be sold.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

S&P's

The market held up nicely today and was able to add a little to the early gains.  The charts are more positive than they have been, or better stated, less negative. Buying dips willl be more supported by the technicals at least for the short term. This still looks like a correction in a bear market, it's just that there seems to be a fair amount of room on the upside for it to correct at the moment. 

We've thawed out here in Texas and will pick it up tomorrow as usual. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ice Storm

I'll be working from home for awhile this morning until the streets, which are a sheet of ice, thaw.  Please email rather than call this morning.

Markets are better with the Bad Bank solution talk from Washington.  Also, the Fed will conclude their meeting and issue a statement later.  I think there is potential for a much larger move in the S&P, maybe another 100 points.  I have mentioned it earlier in the week and it has been difficult to pick stop levels but stocks feel like gold at 850 last week.

Gold is correcting from its recent rise and may have a bit more to go, but I'm looking again to get long gold. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Tuesday Update

The markets in general look very similar to yesterday.  Short term the stock indices look like they can work higher but the daily levels have yet to turn positive.  Yesterday's purchase was a bit optimistic in hindsight.  

Bonds still look a little heavy short term  but are in a reverse situation as stocks with their daily charts still positive.  

Gold's early weakness may develop into a buy signal which I'll be watching closely.

Still no strong view of the dollar short term.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, January 26, 2009

S&P's

Stocks have slipped to bring us down to our stop in the S&P.  It's a very mixed technical picture at this point.   

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

The stock market has broken Thursday's and Friday's highs and is a move that I think may feed on itself.  If we get a near term correction to 839 I think you can buy it with a 14 point stop with an open ended objective for now.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Morning Update

Good morning.  The S&P is at 830 which is right about where it was when I left on Friday.  The technicals haven't changed much since then in that it above 830 is a medium term resistance level that suggests buying puts and/or selling calls.  However, like Friday, I am not overly bearish for a few reasons.  The weekly charts show a buy zone under 849 and have for the last few weeks.  The Monthly chart is still very bearish but with huge amount of upside correction risk which wouldn't alter the bearish picture.   The daily and intraday charts are still bearish but can turn at any time on strength, probably in the 840's.  With that I think it is possible for a move up to 950 again.  So the highs of Thursday and Friday in the mid 830's are very pivotal to me.  

There is a Fed meeting this week and they will likely keep interest rates unchanged.  Long term treasury futures have been sliding recently and I think they can make a bigger move down outside of another dramatric fall in stocks.  

The CRB has turned a little more positive which is consistent with the recent firming in oil and metals.  I think both gold and crude can rally more.  Gold perhaps significantly.  

I don't have a strong view on the dollar at the moment.  

As I mentioned Friday, I left early to attend a PFGBEST conference in Phoenix.  It was excellent and there are a lot of tools available to help with your trading and investing.  I will be adding a lot of that information to the Stops and Options website asap.  I'll keep you posted.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, January 23, 2009

Market Update

Stocks have become more mixed as they've rallied today, in that they've looked too strong short term to sell and too negative longer term to buy.  Here in the low 830's is a good place to enter longer term option positions, buy puts and sell calls.  But the intraday stuff is not likely to turn negative before I leave for the day.  Aside from the technicals, we've been down seemingly every day this year and it feels like we need to correct higher.  Crude has reversed nicely and may rally intermediate term to 53.  Gold has broken out and may have a more sustainable move higher. Higher commodities seems to have a positive correlation with stocks.  I guess I'm not as bearish as the charts suggest.  

I'll post any changes, otherwise, have a great weekend.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stocks

After the first hour of trading we have rallied back somewhat to the level I mentioned earlier, 815. This may turn out to be a reasonable daytrade sell level but I want to give it at least another hour as there is a chance we rally closer to the daily sell zone of 826 in the near term.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Update

Stocks are lower: dollar and gold are higher.  The gold trade from yesterday was stopped out overnight.  That's a shame as gold is up $20, just what we thought might happen.  It's also interesting that gold has been holding and now rallying as the dollar continues to go up.  This is not a good sign for treasury futures.

None of the overnight moves are out of line with the channels they've developed.  

If we can get a rebound into the mid teens in the S&P, there may be a day trade sell.  

I will be leaving about an hour before the stock market close today to travel to Phoenix for a PFGBEST.com weekend conference.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Gold and S&P's

Gold has stayed firm all day and now looks better for a possible run to 890.  Keep stop at same level over night.

Stocks have rebounded to near the daily sell zones which are probably good levels to sell calls again.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Update

Gold is hanging in there.  It made new highs after an opportunity to get in and has held the stop level.  

If the S&P's are going to hold it is going to do it here, 810ish.  I've covered some short calls,  but big picture still looks bearish.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Gold

Buy Feb Gold at 857.5 with a $5 stop for initially a day trade.  If we can hold the gains for the day, the daily chart will look much more positive.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday Morning Update

S&P's are down 10 points after more bad economic data just released.   Jobless claims and housing starts weaker than expected, again.  However, yesterday's late rally was big enough to help the charts somewhat.  I would expect support in the mid teens early this morning and if it holds, as the day wears on, maybe we build on yesterday's move.  If it breaks through there, then it is all negative technically.

The dollar is down but well off its lows.  

March crude looks similar to the sp's with 42.20 analogous to 815.  Gold has been quiet and range bound.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

S&P's

The S&P's held yesterday's lows earlier on the push towards 800 and have now ralllied back to make new highs.  This is a strong close but still will face resistance tomorrow in upper 830's.  The vix is off by almost 10 points and holding back most out of the money calls to steady levels.  Further gains will start to put pressure on our short call positions.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

CXL 10 yr

We missed the 10 year by a couple ticks.  Cancel it.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

10 yrs

There is a little day trade set up in the March 10 year note to buy it at 125'06 with a 5 point stop and a 125'16  target good for the next hour.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday Morning Futures Update

The technicals for the stock indexes are negative short term.  We are higher at the moment and this early strength may offer a good opportunity to sell calls/spreads and/or buy puts/spreads. The S&P's may top out anywhere between 814 and the upper 820's this morning and re-test or break yesterday's lows.  

That is the technical makeup as I see it, but it is important to remember that any specifics offered by the new administration as far as the stimulus or banking fix goes may prompt significant reaction in the market.  Also, the new Treasury Secretary will be grilled for confirmation today which also may create volatility.  He appears to be headed for confirmation (which the market seems to want) but if it gets off track because of his unpaid taxes or employing an illegal alien then it may cause problems.  

Notes and bonds are lower and the dollar is relatively quiet this morning. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Market Update

The markets are not giving our new President a very warm welcome.  Stocks have been under pressure all day with very small bounces.  The overwhelmingly negative economic enviornment seems to be trumping the optimism surrounding Obama's inauguration.  

There is renewed concern over the solvency of not just our domestic banks, but of banks globally. That, I think, is causing the pressure in stocks and the firmness in the dollar. The indexes are looking like they are picking up negative momentum.  As we approach today's buy zone, it is important at this time of day and the changes taking place to consider this level could be tomorrow's sell zone.  With the vix up 7+ to 53+ today, it is worth considering selling calls as the vix should give a substantial cushion to any reversal.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Morning Update

Good morning.  With most attention on Washington today, anything can happen.  However, the stock indexes are weak and look like they should be sold on strength.  The dollar index continues its strength as the EC and BP are getting knocked down significantly.  For as bad as things look in the U.S., it looks worse in the UK and EC countries.  (I was reminded this weekend that the ECB raised rates last summer...they have some catching up to do with rates).

The size of the governments funding needs is finally getting a little more attention, and is seemingly putting some pressure on longer term interest rate futures.  The numbers are so big (and growing by the day) for future government borrowing (supply) it is hard to get a handle on. The impact on interest rates and foreign exchange should be huge also.  Longer term interst rate futures have developed a trading range since early December.  I continue to look for opportunities to sell these contracts.

Gold is rallying in the face of the stronger dollar but is not particularly bullish here.  Crude on the other hand is lower again.  It's last trading day for the Feb contract and March is trading around 40.50.  With the global demand picture not brightening any, we may see March quickly catch up to the Feb levels, (mid 30's).

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, January 16, 2009

SP's and Notes

The S&P's just traded down to 826.25.  It is a bit early for the intra day charts to show any buy signals but it stopped right in front of the daily buy zone number of 825.  The notes also briefly traded below their buy zone level of 125'15  ealier today and have since rallied.  Ditto for the dollar index and reverse for EC. I mention this only to remind people that the numbers each day area usually worth noting.  Often the markets trade into them and  change direction without my daytrading criteria being met.  They are particularly useful for managing option positons.  


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Morning Update

Like so many mornings, there are a lot of headlines impacting the markets.  So mcuh so that I thing the cpi data was a complete non-event.  It's expiration for January index options, we have a three day weekend, Obama's inauguration on Tuesday and more, massive bank interventions both here and over seas.  

The indexes are higher but near resistance in my view.  The Nasdaq has topped thus far at 1201 and the sp should see some resistsance in the 860's.  I think you can sell calls/call spreads in the sp in the 860's and possibly sell puts/put spreads in the 820's.  

In general, the early morning moves, higher stocks, gold, EC and lower 10 yrs and dollar index look to be fades.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, January 15, 2009

NQ and S&P

The nasdaq looks like its on its way back to 1200.  I'm looking for a spot to buy it.

I don't have a feel for the S&P's.  Too many mixed signals for today.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stocks

The sp futures are still negative but I don't think it should be sold down here under 820 at this time of day.  Perhaps a rally above 828 could be sold later.  Nasdaq is holding on to a slightly more positve chart and traded into its buy zone earlier.  Some days (too many) it's hard to pick better intra day levels than the daily Buy/Sell levels.  Substantial moves in the earlier mentioned markets have traded as mentioned but with such high, short term volatility around the stock opening it was too difficult to post levels.  

Still lots of time for something today...

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Market Update

Stocks, gold and the EC  look like sales on strength while the dollar index is pushing higher.

We just had several economic releases none of which were particularly good for the economic outlook except an unexpected decline in continuing unemployment claims dropped instead of an expected increase.  Nonetheless, the data was not good and we have more to come later and tomorrow. 

The ECB cut their target lending rate to 2% as was expected.  The EC reached 1.3212 overnight but has since traded under 1.31.  We'll look to sell it again today.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Cancel the EC

The EC rallied back to 1.3164 so we missed the re-entry and now it's too late for a short term trade.  I feel the Dollar index can continue higher and the EC can move lower.  I can't tighten up the stops any from the Daily Buy/Sell levels for an overnight position.  We will most likely look to sell EC again tomorrow and/ buy the dollar index.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

We were stopped out at break even in the EC but we can offer it out  again at 1.3170 with another 25 point stop for the next hour.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC Stop

Move stop on EC to break even.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

SP's

The stock index charts are very mixed.  I want to clarify my view as I am a reluctant bear short term in the face of longer term support.  There is a weekly signal to buy in the low 830's and risk about 40 points for a move back to 915.  On top of that we are in a daily buy zone.  This is countered with all the intraday stuff that is really showing no sign of a bottom of yet and the possibility of the daily chart becoming more negative without a bounce.  

I like selling the EC as noted earlier. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC

I think there is a day trade here in the EC.  Sell the March EC at 1.3150 and risk 25 ticks.  Initial target is 1.3100.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stock Indexes

Stocks are into their daily buy zone but there is no sign of short term relief from the selling.  This can continue to feed on itself and turn quite negative with a close down here, 840ish or below.  I'm looking for some near term rallies to sell.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EC Daily Buy/Sell

There was an error on the EC daily buy/sell page this morning but it has been corrected.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

This morning we've had a pair of weak economic numbers,  continued dismal mortgage purchase application data as well as weaker than expected retail sales for December.  Stock indexes were soft before the numbes and more soft afterwards.  There should be support in the sp's around 840 and near term resistance in the mid 860's.

The dollar looks like it can build on yesterday's strength.  Gold held up well yesterday in the face of the dollars rally but I don't see both rallying together for any sustained period.  

The 10 yrs are up but I don't expect to sell them today as the daily numbers will shift higher if the early gains are maintained. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Update

Stocks continue to struggle and don't look particulary bullish.  However, a modest rally can change the charts quickly. 

The dollar and crude had all the volatility today.  The dollar index was very neutral coming into today but now looks like it can continue higher.  Crude was very choppy today as it seems to be developing some short term support.  

I've been working on the website, www.stopsandoptions.com, and will add more info to it shortly.  Take a look when you can.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

10 yr notes

The notes traded back through our stop at 126'04.  It's tough to get this to break much but it did trade as low as 125'24.  As firm as it has been, it is still technically set up for another sale around our our original stop level of 126'14.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian rallied through our initial target already so we missed the original idea by a tick.  Cancel the order underneath and we'll look for another trade.

Notes just made new lows for the day, 125'26.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Canadian Dollar

We just missed the last dip in Canadian.  But since we did we should now lower the bid to 8110 and keep a 20 point stop.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Note Stop

Move stop on Ten year notes t0 126'04.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Canadian Dollar

Buy the march Canadian Dollar at 8115 with a 20 point stop.  The initial target would be 8155 but we would most likely trail a stop at that point and look for a bigger move.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Notes and Trade data

The ten year notes topped out yesterday at 126'11.5 and overnight at 126'11, so we squeaked through with our short position from 126'02.  The market just made lows of 125'27.5 after the release of November trade data which was better than expected.  We want to move the stop down to break even on further weakness.

SP's have had a choppy overnight session and are coming off recent lows after the trade data. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, January 12, 2009

Stock Indexes

Stocks have come down to weekly support levels of 1190 in NQ and low 860's for the S&P's (similar support in the Dow futures is around 8325.  If the market were to close here the daily numbers for tomorrow would be lower, but we should see some support in the markets soon.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

NQ

The NQ recently traded through our 1201 stop level.  A failure to rebound before the close will cause the NQ to join the other indexes in a slightly more bearish position with lower buy/sell zones.  
We're still holding a short position in the ten year notes which are currently trading around 126'06.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

NQ and Notes

The NQ recently traded to 1206.25, so we're on a buy signal from 1211.  Keep stop at 1201.  

Sell notes at 126'02 with a 12 tick stop and a target of 125'00.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

NQ Buy Signal

Buy the March NQ  at 1211 with a 10 point stop and a 1233 target.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

NQ

The NQ did not shift lower along with the Dow and S&P on Friday so that complicates the stock index picture somewhat.  An early move down towards 1214 would create a buy signal.  It's currently trading around 1224.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Morning Update

Good morning.  The S&P's are slightly lower after turning mildly bearish Friday from the standpoint that the Buy/Sell Zones shifted to lower levels.  Looking at both the Daily and Weekly charts suggests a move down to 865-850 before attempting any serious move back towards the recent highs.  These charts are formed within the context of a very bearish Monthly chart.  An early move to 894 would most likely be a sale this morning.

Ten year notes still are in a sell zone above 125'12 but there won't be any early sell signal until 126ish.  

The dollar index is also in a sell zone and may develop a sell signal near the overnight highs. Same trade in reverse exists with the EC, SF and BP.  I'll come back with specific levels asap for those markets.

Crude, gold and other commodities are falling significantly this morning but no trades for now.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, January 9, 2009

Stocks

The stock indexes have been unable to bounce out of the early weakness.  A close in the March SP under 893.50 suggests a closing short put positons.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stocks and Bonds

The charts tell me to buy stocks and sell bonds here.  It seems like thesee may be pivotal longer term levels, 125'16ish  in notes and 890ish in sp's.  As I'm sure most of you are aware, there is often a lot of volatility after big economic releases and today is no different.  At the risk of missing identifiable entry  levels here, I want to let the markets settle in a bit more today and further digest the data.  There is no good news in it.  It's just how the market perceives its impact on future prices.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten year notes

The notes are down to 125'03.  My post was too late to catch this move so scratch it for now.  If notes firm up again, the numbers may change so I'll updatae accordingly.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Unemployment and Notes

The unemployment data was released pretty much near median estimates and probably a relief that it wasn't worse.

Stocks and interest rate products are a little higher.  There is a sell signal in ten year notes at 125'16 with a 10 tick risk and an initial objective to 124'28.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, January 8, 2009

SP's

Well the sp's and nq's held their early lows and are finishing relatively firm.  Tomorrow morning the unemployment data will be released and could be anything.  Technically, the market has been in a buy zone since late yesterday.  We'll see what happens.  I didn't want to hold futures through the number as the chance of getting stopped out after such a number increases dramatically.  I still think, however, it's ok to be short put spreads.

I'll update things after tomorrow's data.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Auction

The notes are trading higher after a well received auction and the stocks are still trading lower.  It looks like a similar if not exact trade from earlier this morning can be made again, but I'm going to give it a little more time to see if this weakness gains momentum on the downside.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Notes and Stocks

The notes have traded on both sides of the Buy/Sell zones since the opening and now back up to the sell zone.  The results of the government auction of new 10 year notes will be released in about 10 minutes.  If the reaction is negative it may drive stock futures back towards their lows and set up another buying opportunity.  There is still plenty of time in the day to fade a down move.  Regarding the notes themselves, I don't see a good trade developing either way at this point.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Out of SP and NQ

The markets traded back through our recent stop levels in both markets.  Small gains but worth taking in this enviornment in front of unemployment tomorrow.  There could be more buy signals again lower, but the later in the day  it get's the less likely I'd be to act upon them.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Move Stops again

Move stops to 899 and 1232 for sp's and nq respectively.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Move Stops

Move stop/stops to break even.  SP's traded only the trade price of 893.50 so you may or may not have been filled.  Markets are at 900 and 1233.50 currently.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

S&P and NQ

Buy 893.50 with an 8 point stop in the March SP and/or  Buy 1227 with a 10 point stop in the March NQ.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday Morning Update

The stock indexes  had a quiet night until Walmart reported disappointing numbers early this morning.  The market sold off and made an SP low of 891.50 before a better than expected jobless claims number  brought the market off its lows.  The indexes are in the daily buy zones and have set up some buy signals in the low 890's in the March Sp's and the upper 1220's in March NQ.  I'll be back with specific numbers after the cash openings.

Ten year notes are more neutral at these levels but their is a 10 yr auction today, the results of which will be announced at noon central.  I mention it as there has been growing concern of the growing size of these auctions.  

The dollar index is in a buy zone but may have more short term weakness.  Reverse is true for all currencies except BP, which looks more positive.  Bank of England lowered there target rate to 1.5% earlier today.

Big day down in crude yesterday.  Switched the charts, not surprisingly, to a more negative bias again.   Gold has traded from the Daily buy zone to the Sell zone already this morning.  That's the third day in a row it's done that and continues to look range bound.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Stocks and Notes

Ten year notes went through the intial target but also through the recent stop level of 124'13.5.  There is a lot of support in treasuries from the Fed and the current enviornment of general uncertainty.  Assuming no large, late selloff, the ten years will look more neutral tomorrow.

I thought the notes may continue lower if stocks held up near the buy zones and showed some strength.  It's too early to say that won't happen but not soon enough for the notes.  With SP's currently 903, it is a reasonable place to sell put spreads to gain a little long exposure.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Note Stop

If you are short the notes, move stop down to 124'13.5.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Notes

The notes traded 124'24 after the recent Post but not through it so you may or may not have been filled.  If short, I would move stop to entry price and if you were unable I would cancel the trade.  The reason being that the trade is less and less desireable as the day progresses because if the market closes near there the recent negative bias in the market will change to higher levles. If you'r in it, however, we look for 124'06 iniitally.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Stocks and Bonds

The Dow briefly dipped into its daily buy zone and the sp and nq came very close.  At the same time the notes traded into their sell zone where there is a signal to sell 124'24 with a 9 tick stop (125'01).  I like to stick to the technicals but I can't help thinking this is a time of unusually high uncertainty with all the government activity.  In paticular, relevant for this post, the Fed is buying 
$600 billion in securities while the CBO announces a 1.2 trillion upcoming fiscal deficit.  It's very conflicting so we'll just keep following the technical signals.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday's Markets

This morning we have stocks weaker after a huge decline in the ADP December jobs forecast, -693,000, with the official government report due Friday.  As bad as that is, it's not entirely unexpected.  I think the market has been focused more on the potential with Obama's new proposals than on the awful economic data we've been receiving almost daily.  This shifts the focus somewhat and its not good.  A move closer to 900 may produce trade signals to get long, however,  but we'll hold off on that for now.

The dollar has come off substantially since the early Tuesday morning highs.  Those highs corresponded with the low in gold around 838 and lows in the EC and SF.  I mention it to point out that its worth looking at the Daily Buy/Sell zones posted on the website as they can often identify general moves if not specific trades.  Now the dollar index has moved into its daily buy zone and gold into its sell zone.  So the recent moves may have run there course for now.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Notes

We were stopped out in the notes.  Minutes from the last Fed meeting are due at 1:00 central time which could create some further volatility in interest rate futures.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ten year note day trade

Sell  March Ten year notes at 123'31 with a 6 tick stop.  Initial target is 123'18.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

Good morning.  The stock indexes are higher and hugging the top end of their channel lines.  The market feels strong with room to rally on the weekly charts but it is not in a great technical position to establish new longs on the shorter term charts. 

The weakness in treasury futures continues and the downside potential has increased with yesterdays close.  We may be able to sell early strength in ten year notes.

The dollar is higher but in my view very toppy in the short run.  Reverse is true for Swiss and EC.  

Gold looks like a buy in the mid/upper 830's if we get back there this morning.

 There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, January 5, 2009

S&P's

A couple notes on the S&P's: last week's rally shifted the sell zone on the weekly chart from the moving average line to the Bollinger band center line which is currently at 992.  Also, the daily chart is now in an upward trending channel as of Friday.  My hesitation for getting bullish here is that we're at the top of the Daily channel band here in the 920's.  We may very well take this move into the high 900's pushing towards the weekly sell zone this month,   but I would much rather get long closer to the daily buy zone, 905 today, than at  the top.  It will move for us over time and the intraday numbers will createa buy signals if we don't get a more substantial pullback soon. 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

The Dollar Index and Gold

We may have already seen the high in the dollar index and the low in gold for the day, but if not, we want to fade those moves today.  I'll come back with specific levels to trade.

Last week's rally in stocks was impressive but they still face a lot of resistance ahead.  I'm not a believer at these levels at this time.   Ten year notes, also, are bouncing from overnight weakness but may not have much further to go before resuming their selloff.   Again, looking for levels to trade and will post asap.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, January 2, 2009

Market Update

Good morning and Happy New Year.  

Stock indexes were higher earlier but have retreated somewhat.  Near this morning's highs, the S&P's look just the opposite as they did Monday morning on the early weakness.  I don't trust the early strength but if it ends the day up there, both the daily and weekly charts will look better to start next week.  

Ten year notes finished '08 with a substantial sell off Wednesday but are rebounding this morning.  They are again in a sell zone above 126'20 and offer an opportunity to buy puts if you don't already own them.  

The  Yen and Canadian dollar are near buy zones which would suggest buying calls.

Wednesday was very volatile with Crude oil taking it up to over $45 at one point.  Both crude and Natural Gas look like they can rally again for the short term.

I don't have any futures trades set up yet this morning but will post as they develop.  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results